【CEL Seminar】Understanding the Methods of Model Simulation and Prediction

  • 16 July 2020  |  Seminars

On July 16, 2020, the third Seminar of UNEP-IEMP and the first seminar in the CEL Seminar Series was held online. Yang Xiaoguang, Deputy Director of Institute of Systems Science of Chinese Academy of Sciences and professor of Academy of Mathematics and Systems Sciences of Chinese Academy of Sciences, was invited to present an academic lecture on the "Introduction to economic forecasting and its methods". More than 40 people from UNEP-IEMP and other organizations attended the lecture online.

Professor Yang first explained the concept and implication of scientific prediction, the model, main objects of economic prediction, and proceeding from simple definitions to complex scenarios. 

In the second part, Professor Yang introduced common and advanced economic forecasting methods and relevant application scenarios. He compared the advantages and disadvantages of each method and listed some applications in specific research work. Specifically, he introduced the simulation tool NetLogo of ABM and its applications and examples, presenting the effect of economic forecast on policymaking. 

Professor Yang finally shared his own experience in economic forecasting over the years. He compared the similarities and differences between economic prediction and economic analysis. Particularly, he emphasized that understanding and grasping the mechanism behind the problem are the core of prediction, and that the applicability and adaptability of models need to be taken into consideration while conducting similar research works. 

In the Q&A session, Professor Yang answered the participants' questions about prediction models, usage methods, confusion about the models, and hands-on experiences in practice.

This academic lecture vividly introduces the concept, technical methods, and scientific research examples of economic prediction. The contents shed light on the basic content, advanced technology application, scientific research practice, experience extraction, and sharing of prediction work. The lecture met the learning and work needs of different participants and provided new ideas and tools for their daily research work. The lecture also provided a good opportunity for capacity-building for the members and strengthened the academic exchanges between UNEP-IEMP and other institutions.

Professor Xiaoguang Yang and Director Linxui Zhang speaking at the seminar

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